| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | L | Kansas | 7-31 | 1496.9 | -121.8 | 1375.1 | 54.8% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 42-14 | 1375.1 | +49.9 | 1425.0 | 33.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Oregon State | 36-27 | 1425.0 | +45.3 | 1470.3 | 54.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Southern | 56-7 | 1470.3 | +0.0 | 1470.3 | 45.7% |
| 5 | Sep 21 2025 | W | Hawai'i | 23-21 | 1470.3 | +38.7 | 1509.0 | 62.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Nevada | 20-17 | 1509.0 | +5.5 | 1514.5 | 91.3% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | L | Colorado State | 21-49 | 1514.5 | -62.1 | 1452.4 | 78.8% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | San Diego State | 0-23 | 1452.4 | -56.1 | 1396.3 | 58.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Boise State | 30-7 | 1396.3 | +76.7 | 1473.0 | 13.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Wyoming | 24-3 | 1473.0 | +21.8 | 1494.8 | 67.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Utah State | 17-28 | 1494.8 | -65.6 | 1429.2 | 71.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | San José State | 41-14 | 1429.2 | +24.8 | 1454.0 | 76.9% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 18-3 | 1454.0 | +42.7 | 1496.7 | 49.8% |